Demographic Dividend for Namibia

Abstract

This paper is about the Demographic Dividend and the need for Namibia to generate evidence through research for the country to take full advantage of the opportunity. The paper shows how the demographic dividend is delivered through its most important mechanisms; namely, labour supply, savings, and human capital. The focus of the paper is on how the demographic transition process will support the delivery of the Dividend through its effect on the size of the labour force, increase in the labour force participation rates particularly among women, and overall increase in labour productivity. Model calculations show that the relative contribution of children age 0-14 will decline from 0.35 in 2021 to 0.24 in 2061, while the relative contribution of both the working age population (age 15-64) and the elderly (age 65+) will increase over time, but more so for the working age than the elderly. The Spectrum Model has been used to determine the amount of programme efforts that would be required to achieve a desired fertility reduction in Namibia from 2017 to 2063. Estimates show that overall modern contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) must increase from 55% in 2017 to over 75% by 2062. For the demographic dividend to materialise, there should be in place a conducive policy environment, including among others: access to health and reproductive health services and facilities; promotion of quality education and skills development for the youth; conducive macroeconomic opportunity for national saving and close to full employment of the youth.