The Price of Safety: An Integrated Analysis of Driver Remuneration and Public Transport Fatalities Across National Contexts

Abstract

Traffic deaths disproportionately burden low- and middle-income countries, a disparity inadequately explained by motorisation levels alone. This study investigates the fundamental, but relatively understudied, hypothesis that poor driver remuneration is a structural force that fuels fatal crashes through measurable psychosocial and behavioural pathways. Theoretically grounded on an integrated theoretical framework combining the Effort-Reward Imbalance (ERI) model and rational-choice theory, the research employs a comparative, cross-sectional design integrating secondary national-level data (2018-2022) for 30 countries and primary survey data from 1,200 public transport drivers. The study employs multivariate regression (log-OLS, negative binomial), bootstrap mediation analysis, and tests of moderation. Findings support a strong negative relationship between PPP-adjusted driver remuneration and standardised fatality rates (β = -0.47, p < .001), moderated by strong mediation by extended working hours/fatigue (indirect effect = -0.098) and risky income-maximising activities (indirect effect = -0.075). The relationship is considerably significant in developing countries and is attenuated by stricter traffic enforcement and newer motor vehicle fleets. The study makes a novel contribution in providing the first large-scale, cross-national test of the mechanistic processes linking pay to safety and thereby reconciling occupational health and economic perspectives. Theoretically, it validates and elaborates on the ERI and rational-choice models in the transportation sector. Practically, it orders a paradigm shift in road safety policy, positing that living wage regulations, enforced working hour limitations, and replacement of the fleets are not labour issues but cost-saving public safety measures. Socially, the realignment is needed to reduce the global incidence of unnecessary death and encourage fair, sustainable transport systems.